Stunting Prediction Model Based on Health, Social, and Economic Factors Using Genetic Programming in Coastal Areas of East Java Province, Indonesia
Keywords:
Newborn, Prediction, Stunting, Symbolic RegressionAbstract
Stunting is a failure to achieve optimal growth in children under five, especially during the first 1000 days of life, caused by chronic maternal and early-life nutritional deficiencies. Indonesia ranks fourth globally in stunting prevalence. This study examined 650 newborns, their mothers, families, and environmental conditions in East Java, Indonesia. The dependent variable was stunting incidence, while 26 independent variables encompassed maternal health before and during pregnancy, paternal health conditions, economic status, environmental quality, and maternal nutritional intake during pregnancy. Symbolic regression (Genetic Programming) was applied to analyze the influence of these determinant factors. Model selection was based on R², F1-score, accuracy, and several additional performance metrics. Data processing was conducted using SPSS and HeuristicLab 3.3. Results indicated that the symbolic regression model performed exceptionally well, with R² = 0.951 for the training set and R² = 0.999 for the testing set. Prediction accuracy reached 99.17% (training) and 100% (testing). Other classification indicators consistently demonstrated the model’s high precision and stability. The most influential variables contributing to stunting incidence included the father’s respiratory disease history, paternal smoking behavior, maternal body mass index, maternal hemoglobin level during pregnancy, iron intake, vegetable protein intake, animal protein intake, and milk consumption. Among these, animal protein consumption emerged as the most dominant protective factor, where higher and adequate intake substantially reduced the likelihood of stunting in newborns. These findings highlight the strong predictive capability of symbolic regression and reinforce the importance of maternal nutrition and household health conditions in preventing stunting.
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