## Survival Analysis - Cox Model ####
## Rodrigo Lins ##

## Pacotes e opcoes ####
options(scipen = 999)
library("survival")
library(ggplot2)

##

## Working on the V-Dem dataset ####

## Selecionando as variaveis que farao parte do banco ##
vdem <- `V-Dem-CY-Full+Others-v10`[ , c("country_name", "country_text_id", "country_id",
                                        "year", "v2x_polyarchy", "v2x_regime", "v2xps_party",
                                        "v2xnp_pres", "e_migdppcln", "e_regionpol")]


vdem <- vdem[ which(vdem$year> '1899'), ]  ## Selecinando anos > 1899 ##
vdem <- vdem[ which(vdem$year< '2017'), ]  ## Selecionando anos < 2017 ##
vdem <- vdem[ which(vdem$e_regionpol== '2'), ]  ## Selecionando a Am?rica Latina ##
vdem$democracy <- ifelse(vdem$v2x_regime> 1, 0, 1) ## Criando variavel 'democracy' ##
colnames(vdem)[1] <- "country"  ## Renomeando a coluna "country_name" como "country" ##


##

## DURATION MODEL DATA (observations) ####

## Criando a variavel 'start' ##
vdem$start <- as.numeric(as.factor(vdem$year))
## Criando a variavel 'stop' ##
vdem$stop <- vdem$start + 1

col_order <- c("country", "country_text_id", "country_id", "year", "democracy", "start", "stop", "v2x_polyarchy", "v2x_regime", "v2xps_party", "v2xnp_pres",
               "e_migdppcln", "e_regionpol")
vdem <- vdem[, col_order]

## Excluding countries with no democratic experience - 1900-2017 ##

vdem <- subset(vdem, country!="Cuba" & country!="Haiti")


## Removeindo 'pais-ano' nao democratico (por pais) ##

## Argentina ##
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year<1917),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1919),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1931),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1932),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1933),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1934),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1935),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1936),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1937),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1938),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1939),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1940),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1941),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1942),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1943),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1944),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1945),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1946),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1947),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1948),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1949),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1950),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1951),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1952),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1953),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1954),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1955),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1956),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1957),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1958),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1959),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1960),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1961),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1962),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1963),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1967),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1968),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1969),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1970),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1971),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1972),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1973),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1977),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1978),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1979),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1980),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1981),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1982),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Argentina" & vdem$year==1983),]

## Bolivia ##
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Bolivia" & vdem$year<1985),]

## Brazil ##
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Brazil" & vdem$year<1987),]

## Chile ##
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Chile" & vdem$year<1959),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Chile" & vdem$year==1974),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Chile" & vdem$year==1975),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Chile" & vdem$year==1976),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Chile" & vdem$year==1977),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Chile" & vdem$year==1978),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Chile" & vdem$year==1979),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Chile" & vdem$year==1980),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Chile" & vdem$year==1981),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Chile" & vdem$year==1982),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Chile" & vdem$year==1983),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Chile" & vdem$year==1984),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Chile" & vdem$year==1985),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Chile" & vdem$year==1986),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Chile" & vdem$year==1987),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Chile" & vdem$year==1988),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Chile" & vdem$year==1989),]

## Colombia ##
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Colombia" & vdem$year<1991),]

## Costa Rica ##
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Costa Rica" & vdem$year<1950),]

## Dominican Republic ##
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Dominican Republic" & vdem$year<1982),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Dominican Republic" & vdem$year==1991),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Dominican Republic" & vdem$year==1992),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Dominican Republic" & vdem$year==1993),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Dominican Republic" & vdem$year==1994),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Dominican Republic" & vdem$year==1995),]

## Ecuador ##
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Ecuador" & vdem$year<1980),]

## El Salvador ##
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="El Salvador" & vdem$year<1995),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="El Salvador" & vdem$year==1997),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="El Salvador" & vdem$year==1998),]

## Guatemala ##
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Guatemala" & vdem$year<2000),]

## Honduras ##
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Honduras" & vdem$year<1990),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Honduras" & vdem$year>=2009),]

## Mexico ##
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Mexico" & vdem$year<1995),]

## Nicaragua ##
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Nicaragua" & vdem$year<1990),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Nicaragua" & vdem$year>=2008),]

## Panama ##
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Panama" & vdem$year<1991),]

## Paraguay ##
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Paraguay" & vdem$year<1994),]

## Peru ##
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Peru" & vdem$year<1981),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Peru" & vdem$year==1993),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Peru" & vdem$year==1994),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Peru" & vdem$year==1995),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Peru" & vdem$year==1996),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Peru" & vdem$year==1997),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Peru" & vdem$year==1998),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Peru" & vdem$year==1999),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Peru" & vdem$year==2000),]

## Uruguay ##
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Uruguay" & vdem$year<1920),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Uruguay" & vdem$year==1922),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Uruguay" & vdem$year==1934),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Uruguay" & vdem$year==1935),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Uruguay" & vdem$year==1936),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Uruguay" & vdem$year==1937),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Uruguay" & vdem$year==1938),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Uruguay" & vdem$year==1974),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Uruguay" & vdem$year==1975),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Uruguay" & vdem$year==1976),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Uruguay" & vdem$year==1977),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Uruguay" & vdem$year==1978),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Uruguay" & vdem$year==1979),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Uruguay" & vdem$year==1980),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Uruguay" & vdem$year==1981),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Uruguay" & vdem$year==1982),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Uruguay" & vdem$year==1983),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Uruguay" & vdem$year==1984),]

## Venezuela ##
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Venezuela" & vdem$year<1963),]
vdem<-vdem[!(vdem$country=="Venezuela" & vdem$year>=2004),]

##

## Regressao de Cox ####
modelo <- coxph(Surv(start, stop, democracy) ~ v2xps_party + v2xnp_pres + e_migdppcln, 
                data=vdem)
modelo

  


## Residuos de Schoenfeld ####
res.modelo <- cox.zph(modelo, transform = "identity")
res.modelo

par(mfrow=c(1,1))


plot(res.modelo[1])
abline(h=modelo$coefficients[1], lty=4, col=2) ## Institucioalização (partidos) ##
plot(res.modelo[2])
abline(h=modelo$coefficients[2], lty=4, col=2) ## Presidencialismo ##
plot(res.modelo[3])
abline(h=modelo$coefficients[3], lty=4, col=2) ## Ln PIB per capita ##