Political Factors and Municipalities Debt: An empirical assessment in Portugal
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.34629/ufpe-iscal/1982-3967.2021.v15.e-021006Mots-clés :
political factors, debt, municipalities, panel dataRésumé
This paper explores the relationship between municipalities' debt, measured by debt per capita and different political factors, for the 308 Portuguese municipalities, from 2014 to 2018. This study adds to the scarce prior research about Portuguese municipalities’ debt and constitutes an original approach in the sense that these issues will be explored with more recent data, under the LFL of 2013 framework, implemented after the Local Administration Reform. We do not find evidence of an electoral cycle effect nor an ideological effect (left-wing/right-wing) on the level of debt per capita. Only the coincidence of the political parties between the Local Executive and Central Government appeared to be relevant in medium/large municipalities. New insights about the relationship between political factors and debt are pertinent, mostly when decentralization is underway, with more competencies being assigned to local governments and more financial resources being requested.
Références
ALLERS, M., DE HAAN, J., & STERKS, C. Partisan influence on the local tax burden in the Netherlands. Public Choice, 106, 351–363, 2001.
ASHWORTH, J., GEYS, B. & HEYNDELS, B. Government weakness and local public debt development in Flemish municipalities. International Tax and Public Finance 12 (4): 395–422, 2005.
BABER, W. & SEN, P. The political process and the use of debt financing by state governments. Public Choice, 48, 201–215, 1986.
BALDISSERA, J. F., & ARAÚJO, M. P. Características Políticas e Eleitorais e o Efeito no Endividamento dos Estados Brasileiros. Administração Pública e Gestão Social, 13(1). Enero-Marzo, ISSN: 2175-5787. https://doi.org/10.21118/apgs.v13i1.8254, 2021.
BALTAGI, B.H. Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. 3rd Edition, John Wiley & Sons Inc., New York, 2005.
BASTIDA, F., BEYAERT, A. & BENITO, B. Electoral Cycles and Local Government Debt Management. Local Government Studies, 39(1), 107-132. DOI: 10.1080/03003930.2012.683861, 2013.
BASTIDA, F., GUILLAMÓN, M.-D. & BENITO, B. Fiscal Transparency and the Cost of Sovereign Debt. International Review of Administrative Sciences 83(1): 106-128, 2017.
BENITO, B. & BASTIDA. F. The Determinants of the Municipal Debt Policy in Spain. Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting and Financial Management, 16(4), 492–525, 2004.
BENITO LÓPEZ, B.; BRUSCA ALIJARDE, I. & MONTESINOS JULVE, V. (2004) Análisis del endeudamiento en las comunidades autónomas. Revista de Contabilidad, 7(13), 85–112, 2004.
BOHN, F., & VEIGA F. J. Political opportunism and countercyclical fiscal policy in election-year recessions. Economic Inquiry 57, 2058-2081, 2019a. doi:10.1111/ecin.12813
BOHN, F., & VEIGA F. J. Elections, recession expectations and excessive debt: an unholy trinity. Public Choice 180, 429–449, 2019b. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-019-00647-x,
BORGE, L. Strong politicians, small deficits: evidence from Norwegian local governments. European Journal of Political Economy, 21, 325–44, 2005.
CABASÉS, F., PASCUAL, P. & VALLÉS, J. The Effectiveness of Institutional Borrowing Restrictions: Empirical Evidence from Spanish Municipalities. Public Choice 131(3): 293–313, 2007.
CASTRO, V. & MARTINS, R. Mayors’ Reelection Choice and the Economy: Evidence from Portugal. NIPE WP 06/ 2011. NIPE – Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas. University of Minho, 2011.
CEMR. Local and Regional Governments in Europe - Structures and Competences. The Council of European Municipalities and Regions (CEMR), 2016. Available https://www.ccre.org/img/uploads/piecesjointe/filename/CEMR_structures_and_competences_2016_EN.pdf
CLINGERMAYER, J. C. & WOOD, B. D. Disentangling patterns of state debt financing. American Political Science Review, 89(1), 108-120, 1995.
COSTA, H., VEIGA, L. G. & PORTELA, M. Interactions in Local Governments' Spending Decisions: Evidence from Portugal. Regional Studies, 49(9), 1441-1456, 2015.
DOWNS, A. An economic theory of political action in a democracy. Journal of Political Economy, 65(2), 135-150, 1957.
FARNHARM, P. G. Re-examining Local Debt Limits - Disaggregated Analysis. Southern Economic Journal, 51(4), 1186-1201, 1985.
FERNANDES M. J., CAMÕES, P. & JORGE, S. Anuário Financeiro dos Municípios Portugueses 2019 - Financial Yearbook of Portuguese Municipalities - 2018. Lisbon: Ordem dos Contabilistas Certificados, 2019.
FERREIRA, D. Determinantes do Endividamento Municipal em Portugal. (Unpublished master`s thesis). University of Minho, Braga, 2011.
GALLI, E. & ROSSI, S. P. Political budget cycles: the case of the Western German Länder. Public Choice, 110 (3), 283-303, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1013089504557
GARCÍA-SÁNCHEZ, I.M., MORDÁN, N. & CUADRADO-BALLESTEROS, B. Do electoral cycles affect local financial health? Policy Studies, 35(6), 533-556, 2014. DOI: 10.1080/01442872.2014.971727
GEYS, B. Government weakness and electoral cycles in local public debt: Evidence from Flemish municipalities. Local Government Studies, 33(2), 237-251, 2007.
HULTEN, C.R. & PETERSON, G.E. Is the United States underinvesting in public capital? The public capital stock: needs, trends and performance. American Economic Review, 74 (2), 166–173, 1984.
JOÃO, V. Estudo comparativo das Leis de Finanças Locais 2/2007 e 73/2013: O endividamento das autarquias locais. University of Minho, Braga, 2014.
LAGO, I. & LAGO, S. Explaining budgetary indiscipline: evidence from Spanish municipalities. Public Finance and Management, 8 (1), 36–69, 2008.
LARA-RUBIO, J., RAYO-CANTÓN, S., NAVARRO-GALERA, A. & BUENDIA-CARRILLO. D. Analysing credit risk in large local governments: an empirical study in Spain. Local Government Studies 43(2): 194-217, 2017. doi: 10.1080/03003930.2016.1261700
OATES, W. On the nature and measurement of fiscal illusion: A survey. In T. and F. F. E. in H. of R. Mathews.; G. Brennan; e P. G. B. Grewal (Eds.), Department of Economics, University of Maryland, 65–82, 1989.
PARK, H. M. Practical Guides To Panel Data Modeling: A Step-by-step Analysis Using Stata. Tutorial Working Paper. Graduate School of International Relations, International University of Japan, 2011.
PAVLOVIĆ, D., & XEFTERIS, D. Qualifying the common pool problem in government spending: the role of positional externalities. Constitutional Political Economy 31, 446–457, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-020-09306-6
PETTERSSON-LIDBOM, P. An empirical investigation of the strategic use of debt. Journal of Political Economy, 109(3), 570-583, 2001.
PUVIANI, A. Teoria della illusione finanziaria, Palermo, Sandron, 1903.
RIBEIRO, N., JORGE, S. M. & CERVERA, M. Estudo do Endividamento da Administração Local Portuguesa: Evidência Empírica Usando Modelos de Dados em Painel. In XVI Congreso AECA. Asociación Española de Contabilidad y Administración de Empresas (AECA), 2012.
RIBEIRO, N. A. & JORGE, S. M. Political-Ideological Circumstances and Local Authorities’ Debt: Evidence from Portuguese Municipalities. Contemporary Economics, 9(2), 155-170, 2015. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2656064
ROGOFF, K., & SIBERT, A. Elections and macroeconomic policy cycles. Review of Economic Studies, 55(1), 1-16, 1988.
SEITZ, H. Fiscal policy, deficits and politics of subnational governments: The case of the German Laender. Public Choice, 102, 183–218, 2000.
SHI, M. & SVENSSON, J. Political budget cycles: do they differ across countries and why? Journal of Public Economics, 90, 1367-1389. 2006.
TELLIER, G. (2006). Public expenditures in Canadian provinces: An empirical study of politico-economic interactions. Public Choice, 126(3), 367-385, 2006.
RODRÍGUEZ-BOLÍVAR, M. P., NAVARRO-GALERA, A., ALCAIDE-MUÑOZ, L. & LOPEZ-SUBIRES, M. Risk Factors and Drivers of Financial Sustainability in Local Government: An Empirical Study. Local Government Studies 42 (1): 29–51, 2016. doi:10.1080/03003930.2015.1061506.
RUMI, C. National electoral cycles in transfers to subnational jurisdictions. Evidence from Argentina. Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, 17, 161-178, 2014.
VEIGA, L. & VEIGA, F. Does Opportunism Pay Off? Economics Letters, 96 (2), 177-182, 2007.
VEIGA, L. & VEIGA, F. Determinants of Portuguese local governments’ indebtedness. Universidade do Minho. NIPE WP 16/2014., 2014.
ZAFRA-GÓMEZ, J. L., LÓPEZ-HERNANDEZ, A. M. & HERNÁNDEZ-BASTIDA, A. Developing an Alert System for Local Governments in Financial Crisis. Public Money & Management 29 (3): 175–181, 2009. doi: 10.1080/09540960902891731.
Téléchargements
Publié-e
Numéro
Rubrique
Licence
As publicações são cobertas pelos seguintes termos:
- Autores mantém os direitos autorais e concedem à revista o direito de primeira publicação, com o trabalho licenciado sob a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, que permite o compartilhamento do trabalho com reconhecimento da autoria e publicação inicial nesta revista.
- Responsabilidade dos artigos e resenhas cabe aos autores.
- Nenhum estágio de publicação, avaliação ou submissão envolve transações financeiras.