Precipitação Provável Para A Região Centro-Sul Do Ceará, Brasil (Rainfall Probable In The Region Of Central South Ceará, Brazil)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5935/1984-2295.20150029Keywords:
Probabilidade de ocorrência. Distribuições de probabilidade. Testes de aderência.Abstract
O aproveitamento dos recursos hídricos de forma adequada requer o conhecimento das probabilidades de ocorrência das chuvas, sendo isto possível com o uso das funções de distribuição de probabilidade de ocorrência. Foram analisadas sete distribuições de probabilidade (Exponencial, Gama, Log-normal, Normal, Weibull, Gumbel e Beta) para a precipitação pluviométrica mensal e anual na região Centro-Sul do Ceará, Brasil. Os dados de chuva foram obtidos da base de dados da SUDENE registrados durante o período de 1913 a 1989. Para verificação dos ajustes dos dados às funções densidade de probabilidade foi utilizado o teste não-paramétrico de Kolmogorov-Smirnov com nível de 5% de significância. Para a chuva total anual teve ajuste satisfatório dos dados às distribuições Gama, Gumbel, Normal e Weibull e não ocorreu ajuste às distribuições Exponencial, Log-normal e Beta. Recomenda-se o uso da distribuição Normal para estimar valores de chuva provável anual para a região, por ser um procedimento de fácil aplicação e também pelo bom desempenho nos testes. A distribuição de frequência Gumbel foi a que melhor representou os dados de chuva para o período mensal, com o maior número de ajustes no período chuvoso. No período seco os dados de chuva foram melhores representados pela distribuição Exponencial.
ABSTRACT
The use of water resources properly requires knowledge of the probabilities of occurrence of rainfall, this being possible with the use of distribution functions, probability of occurrence. We analyzed seven probability distributions (Exponential, Gamma, Log-normal, normal, Weibull, Gumbel and Beta) for monthly and annual rainfall in South-Central region of Ceará, Brazil. The rainfall data were obtained from the database SUDENE recorded during the period 1913-1989. To check the settings of the data probability density functions we used the nonparametric Kolmogorov-Smirnov test with the 5% level of significance. For the total annual rainfall was satisfactory adjustment range of the data distributions, Gumbel, Normal and Weibull and there was no adjustment to the exponential distributions, Log-normal and Beta. It is recommended to use the normal distribution to estimate the annual amounts of rain likely for the region, being an easy application procedure and also by the good performance in the tests. The frequency distribution Gumbel was the one that best represented the rainfall data for the monthly period, with the largest number of adjustments during the rainy season. In the dry season rainfall data were best represented by exponential distribution.
Key words - Probability of occurrence. Probability distributions. Adherence tests.
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Copyright (c) 2015 Ítalo Nunes Silva, Joaquim Branco de Oliveira, Edmilson Gomes Cavalcante Junior, Francisco Dirceu Duarte Arraes
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