Scenarios of susceptibility to shallow landslides using the shalstab model and validation by roc curve, metropolitan region of Recife, Northeastern Brazil
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51359/2238-6211.2023.256630Keywords:
mass movements, inventories, mathematical models, shalstab, northeastern BrazilAbstract
The Metropolitan Region of Recife (RMR), Northeastern Brazil, is home to a population of 630 thousand people who live in risk areas, with the town of Camaragibe standing out, where records of landslides are recurrent, especially in the rainy periods. Thus, in a susceptibility evaluation, the predictive mathematical models are relevant tools, the SHALSTAB (Shallow Slope Stability Model) especially. Therefore, this research was intended to define the best scenario that represents susceptibility to shallow translational landslides in the town of Camaragibe, based on a SHALSTAB prediction, and based thereon to analyze the relationship between natural and anthropic factors in the triggering of the processes. Six scenarios were created, based on physical values of the soil collected in the study area itself and on a high-resolution Digital Terrain Model. The choice of the best scenario was based on the construction of the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve, which is an important validation test. The areas predicted to be the most susceptible are located on slopes with a declivity greater than 15º, with alternation of materials and porosity, and a depth of 5m. Anthropic alterations to the topography, and often the nonexistence of infrastructure, were substantial for the triggering of landslides.References
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