Empiric Forecasting of Dominant Modes to Summer Precipitation Anomaly of Northeast Brazil

Rodrigo Lins da Rocha Júnior, Fabrício Daniel dos Santos Silva, Rafaela Lisboa Costa, Heliofábio Barros Gomes


The main economic activities of the Brazilian Northeast (NEB) are affected by the region's highly variable climate, requiring research into seasonal climate forecasting. In a work we show the results obtained after analysing the relationship between the main modes of NEB rainfall variability and lagged oceanic and atmospheric variable fields, that is, preceding rainfall. Consistent relationships were found between sea surface temperature (SST) in the Equatorial Pacific, Equatorial Atlantic and South Atlantic with NEB rainfall. Rossby wave patterns over the North Pacific that propagate from west to east to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Walker Cell and Upper Bolivia have also been identified. In this research, the main objective was to identify the physical basis for the construction of linear regression models capable of predicting seasonal summer rainfall in the NEB, from the relationships between predictor-predictor. The adjusted regression model performed well between simulations and observations based on validation metrics and can be reliably indicated for operational climate forecasting systems. 


seasonal forecast, climate, precipitation, reliability

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.29150/jhrs.v9.6.p353-360

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Journal of Hyperspectral Remote Sensing - eISSN: 2237-2202