Caracterização de Mudanças Climáticas na Antártica a partir da Segunda Metade do Século XX

Natália Silva, Ilana Elazari Klein Coaracy Wainer, Marcos Henrique Maruch Tonelli

Resumo


A Antártica é uma região do planeta extremamente sensível às mudanças globais do clima. Para quantificar essas mudanças, é possível estudar a variação de algumas propriedades atmosféricas como temperatura (T), pressão no nível do mar (PNM) e velocidade de ventos (v). Dados de estações meteorológicas espalhadas pela Antártica distribuídos pelo British Antarctic Survey são analisados. Os resultados mostram que as tendências de temperatura apresentam uma distribuição peculiar, visto que na porção oeste do continente há um intenso aquecimento (e.g.,0.55°C/década em San Martin), enquanto que o lado leste observa um resfriamento (-0.06°C/década em Zhongshan). O índice Intervalo de Temperatura Diária (ITD) também é utilizado para caracterizar mudanças climáticas e é consistente com as variações obtidas para a temperatura, caracterizando, portanto, o chamado Padrão de Dipolo na temperatura. Com relação à PNM, 19 estações meteorológicas das 20 estudadas, apresentam tendências negativas e na grande maioria dessas observa-se também intensificação da velocidade dos ventos. Essas mudanças estão associadas principalmente aos modos de variabilidade natural do planeta, sendo que o maior determinante das características climáticas nas regiões extratropicais do Hemisfério Sul é o Modo Anular do Hemisfério Sul (SAM).

 

Characterization of climate change in Antarctica from the second half of 20th Century

A B S T R A C T

Antarctica is a region of the planet extremely sensitive to global climate change. To quantify these changes, it is possible to study the variation of some atmospheric properties such as Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and Wind Speed. Data from meteorological stations in Antarctica provided by the British Antarctic Survey are analyzed. The results show that Temperature trends have a peculiar distribution, since on the western side of the continent there is intense heating (e.g., 0.55°C/decade in San Martin), while the east side observes cooling trends (-0.06°C/decade  in Zhongshan). The Daily Temperature Range index is also used to characterize climatic changes and agrees with the variations obtained for the Temperature, thus characterizing the so-called Dipole Pattern in temperature. About the Sea Level Pressure, 19 meteorological stations of the 20 studied, present negative trends and in the great majority of these it is also observed intensification on the wind speed. These changes are mainly associated with the natural modes of variability of the planet, and the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) is the major determinant of the climatic characteristics in the extratropical regions of the Southern Hemisphere.

Keywords: Antarctica, Climate Change, Temperature Dipole, Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode.


Palavras-chave


Antártica, Mudanças Climáticas, Dipolo de Temperatura, Modo Anular do Hemisfério Sul

Texto completo:

PDF

Referências


IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.

Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van den Linden, P. J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., and Johnson, C. A.: 2001, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 881 pp.

IPCC, 2018: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, T. Waterfield (eds.)]. In Press.

Turner, John, et al. "Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability." Nature535.7612 (2016): 411.

Bromwich, David H., et al. "Central West Antarctica among the most rapidly warming regions on Earth." Nature Geoscience6.2 (2013): 139.

Ding, Qinghua, and Eric J. Steig. "Temperature change on the Antarctic Peninsula linked to the tropical Pacific." Journal of Climate 26.19 (2013): 7570-7585.

Steig, E. J., Schneider, D. P., Rutherford, S. D., Mann, M. E., Comiso, J. C., Shindell, D. T., 2009. War- ming of the antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 international geophysical year. Nature 457 (7228), 459.

Lindemann, D. d. S., Justino, F. B., 2015. The influence of the modes of climate variability in antarctic surface temperature. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia 30 (2), 214–222.

Yang, Jun, et al. "Global climate change: impact of diurnal temperature range on mortality in Guangzhou, China." Environmental pollution 175 (2013): 131-136.

Easterling, D. R., Horton, B., Jones, P. D., Peterson, T. C., Karl, T. R., Parker, D. E., Salinger, M. J., Razuvayev, V., Plummer, N., Jamason, P., et al., 1997. Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe. Science 277 (5324), 364–367.

Karl, T. R., Jones, P. D., Knight, R. W., Kukla, G., Plummer, N., Razuvayev, V., Gallo, K. P., Lindseay, J., Charlson, R. J., Peterson, T. C., 1993. A new perspective on recent global warming: asymmetric trends of daily maximum and minimum temperature. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 74 (6), 1007–1024.

Vose, R. S., Easterling, D. R., Gleason, B., 2005. Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe: An update through 2004. Geophysical Research Letters 32 (23).

Braganza, Karl, David J. Karoly, and J. M. Arblaster. "Diurnal temperature range as an index of global climate change during the twentieth century." Geophysical Research Letters 31.13 (2004).

Jones, P. D. "Recent variations in mean temperature and the diurnal temperature range in the Antarctic." Geophysical Research Letters 22.11 (1995): 1345-1348.

Justino, F.B.; Peltier, R. Climate anomalies induced by the Arctic and Antarctics Oscillations: Glacial Maximum and presente-day perspectives. Journal of Climate, v. 21, n. 3 p. 459-475, 2008.

Marshall, G. J., 2007. Half-century seasonal relationships between the southern annular mode and antarc- tic temperatures. International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 27 (3), 373–383.

Kwok, Ron, and Josefino C. Comiso. "Spatial patterns of variability in Antarctic surface temperature: Connections to the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode and the Southern Oscillation." Geophysical Research Letters 29.14 (2002): 50-1.

Turner, John, et al. Antarctic climate change and the environment. 2009.

Marshall, G. J., 2003. Trends in the southern annular mode from observations and reanalyses. Journal of Climate 16 (24), 4134–4143.

Turner, J., Colwell, S. R., Marshall, G. J., Lachlan-Cope, T. A., Carleton, A. M., Jones, P. D., Lagun, V., Reid, P. A., Iagovkina, S., 2005. Antarctic climate change during the last 50 years. International journal of Climatology 25 (3), 279–294.

Jacka, T. H., L. Christou, and B. J. Cook, 1984: A data bank of mean monthly and annual surface temperatures for Antarctica, the Southern Ocean and South Pacific Ocean. Australian National Antarctic Research Expeditions Research Note 22, 98 pp.

Schwerdtfeger, W., 1984: Weather and Climate of the Antarctic. El- sevier, 261 pp.

Jones, P. D., and P. A. Reid, cited 2001: A databank of Antarctic surface temperature and pressure data. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Depart- ment of Energy Rep. ORNL/CDIAC-27, NDP-032. [Available online at http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/epubs/ndp/ndp032/ndp032. html.]

Turner, John, et al. "The SCAR READER project: Toward a high-quality database of mean Antarctic meteorological observations." Journal of Climate 17.14 (2004): 2890-2898.

Gonzalez, Sergi, and Didac Fortuny. "How robust are the temperature trends on the Antarctic Peninsula?." Antarctic Science 30.5 (2018): 322-328.

Landim, P. M. B., 2003. Análise estatística de dados geológicos. Unesp.

Vaughan, D. G., Marshall, G. J., Connolley, W. M., Parkinson, C., Mulvaney, R., Hodgson, D. A., King, J. C., Pudsey, C. J., Turner, J., 2003. Recent rapid regional climate warming on the antarctic peninsula. Climatic change 60 (3), 243–274.

Raphael, M., 2003. Impact of observed sea-ice concentration on the southern hemisphere extratropical atmospheric circulation in summer. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 108 (D22).

Lachlan-Cope, T., 2005. Role of sea ice in forcing the winter climate of antarctica in a global climate model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 110 (D3).




DOI: https://doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v12.6.p2091-2107

Licença Creative Commons
Esta obra está licenciada sob uma licença Creative Commons Atribuição 4.0 Internacional.

      

Revista Brasileira de Geografia Física - ISSN: 1984-2295

Creative Commons License
Esta obra está licenciada com uma Licença Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License