APLICAÇÃO DOS COMPONENTES PRINCIPAIS NA SIMULAÇÃO E CONSISTÊNCIA DE SÉRIES TEMPORAIS
Abstract
Empregou-se a Análise das Componentes Principais - ACP para estimar séries temporais de precipitação pluviométricas no Estado do Rio Grande do Norte. Foram utilizados dados mensais de 67 estações meteorológicas no período de 1963 a 2007. Com o emprego do método de classificação de grupos K-means identificou quatro (4) regiões com características próprias e distintas da precipitação: Agreste (G1) e Litoral (G2), com chuvas associadas aos sistemas de leste; Alto Apodi e Serra Central (G3), que além da atuação da ZCIT existe um efeito orográfico acentuado e Central e Norte (G4), com chuvas influenciadas principalmente pela ZCIT. Selecionaram-se duas regiões com regimes pluviométricos diferentes (litoral e semiárido) para estimar séries temporais de precipitação utilizando o método da ACP. O erro percentual médio na região litorânea foi de 12% e de 19,8% a região semiárida, revelando eficácia na estimativa de dados faltosos, principalmente em regiões com regime pluviométrico mais regular.Downloads
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Copyright (c) 2021 Célia Campos Braga, Maria José Herculano Macedo, Bernardo Barbosa da Silva, Ramon Campos Braga
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