Vulnerability assessment using quantitative approaches: a review

une revue

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.51359/2238-6211.2025.264530

Keywords:

landslides, multicriteria decision-making methods, statistical methods, probabilistic models, machine learning

Abstract

Vulnerability is defined as the degree of loss of a certain element or set of elements within an area affected by landslide hazards. Such an assessment is essential to analyze how dangerous events affect or can affect different elements and how human actions and socioeconomic factors influence the propensity for loss or damage in the event of disasters. The present research aimed to review the main methods and techniques recently used to assess vulnerability to landslides. The analysis considered publications retrieved from the Web of Science and ScienceDirect databases between the years 2022 and 2024, using the terms “landslide” and “vulnerability”, resulting in the selection of 10 articles for full reading. Above all, research was identified that analyzes vulnerability in a quantitative way through multi-criteria decision-making methods, statistical methods, probabilistic models and machine learning algorithms. In general, the main limitation pointed out by researchers for the application of quantitative techniques was the lack of temporal data on the occurrence of landslides and socioeconomic data. Despite the relevant contributions of the studies described, research that addresses vulnerability in a quantitative way is still fundamental for the development of methods and techniques that allow the analysis of the topic in all its complexity.

Author Biographies

Ananda Ramos da Silva, University of São Paulo

Doutoranda do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Geografia Física (FFLCH/USP)

Bianca Carvalho Vieira, University of São Paulo

Professora Titular do Departamento de Geografia (FFLCH/USP)

References

ALMEIDA, L. Q.; COSTA, M. R. P. S.; FRAZÃO, A. P. R. F.; FREITAS, A. G.; SOUZA, E. A.; SOUZA, J. L.; MATOS, L. S.; JUVENAL, P. H. S.; SILVA, J. G.; TIRELO, T. S. B. Riesgo de desastre y cambio climático: Un breve análisis a partir del estudio de caso de Galinhos, Brasil. Revista de Estudios Latinoamericanos sobre Reducción del Riesgo de Desastres, v. 7, p. 111, 2023. DOI: 10.55467/reder.v7i2.127.

ÁVILA, F. F.; ALVALÁ, R. C.; MENDES, R. M.; AMORE, D. J. Socio-geoenvironmental vulnerability index (SGeoVI) derived from hybrid modeling related to populations at-risk to landslides. Natural Hazards, v. 120, p. 8121-8151, 2024. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06526-z.

BRADLEY, A. P. The use of the area under the ROC curve in the evaluation of machine learning algorithms. Pattern Recognition. v. 30, n. 7, p. 1145-1159, 1997. DOI: 10.1016/S0031-3203(96)00142-2.

BRUZÓN, A. G.; ARROGANTE-FUNES, P.; ÁLVAREZ-RIPADO, A.; OSUNA, D.; NOVILLO, C. J.; ARROGANTE-FUNES, F. Enhancing Landslide Vulnerability Mapping Through Automated Fuzzy Logic Algorithm-Based Methodology. Geotechnical and Geological Engineering. p. 1-17, 2024. DOI: 10.1007/s10706-023-02714-z.

CARDONA, O. D. Midiendo lo inmedible. Santiago: Centro de estudios sobre desastres y riesgos – CEDERI: Universidad de Los Andes, 2006.

CARRARA, A.; GUZZETTI, F.; CARDINALI, M.; REICHENBACH, P. Use of GIS Technology in the Prediction and Monitoring of Landslide Hazard. Natural Hazards. v. 20, p. 117–135, 1999. DOI: 10.1023/A:1008097111310.

CHEN, Y.; YU, J.; KHAN, S. Spatial sensitivity analysis of multi-criteria weights in GIS-based land suitability evaluation. Environmental Modelling & Software, v. 25, n.12, p. 1582-1591, 2010. DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.06.001.

COROMINAS, J.; VAN WESTEN, C.; FRATTINI, P.; CASCINI, L.; MALETE, J. P.; FOTOPOULOU, S.; CATANI, F.; VAN DEN EECKHAUT, M.; MAVROULI, O.; AGLIARDI, F.; PITILAKIS, K.; WINTER, M. G.; PASTOR, M.; FERLISI, S.; TOFANI, V.; HERVÁS, J.; SMITH, J. T. Recommendations for the quantitative analysis of landslide risk. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, v. 73, p. 209-263, 2014. DOI: 10.1007/s10064-013-0538-8.

GABUS, A.; FONTELA, E. World problems, an invitation to further thought within the framework of DEMATEL. Geneva: Battelle Geneva Research Centre, 1972.

GUZZETTI, F. CARRARA, A.; CARDINALI, M.; REICHENBACH, P. Landslide hazard evaluation: an aid to a sustainable development. Geomorphology, v. 31, p. 181-216, 1999. DOI: 10.1016/S0169-555X(99)00078-1.

HADER, P. R. P.; REIS, F. A. G. V.; PEIXOTO, A. S. P. Landslide risk assessment considering socionatural factors: methodology and application to Cubatão municipality, São Paulo, Brazil. Natural Hazards, v. 110, 1273-1304, 2022. DOI: 0.1007/s11069-021-04991-4.

HEJAZI, S. J.; SHARIFI, A.; ARVIN, M. Assessment of social vulnerability in areas exposed to multiple hazards: A case study of the Khuzestan Province, Iran. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. v. 78. p. 1-19, 2022. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103127.

HUANG, S.; DOU, H.; JIAN, W.; GUO, C.; SUN, Y. Spatial prediction of the geological hazard vulnerability of mountain road network using machine learning algorithms. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, v. 14, n. 1, p. 1-29, 2023. DOI: 10.1080/19475705.2023.2170832.

JAAFARI, A.; MAFI-GHOLAMI, D.; YOUSEFI, S. A spatiotemporal analysis using expert-weighted indicators for assessing social resilience to natural hazards. Sustainable Cities and Society, v. 100, 2024. DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2023.105051.

JANIZADEH, S.; VAFAKHAH, M.; KAPELAN, Z.; MOBARGHAEE, D. N. Hybrid XGboost model with various Bayesian hyperparameter optimization algorithms for flood hazard susceptibility modeling. Geocarto International, v. 37, n. 25, p. 8273-8292, 2021. DOI:10.1080/10106049.2021.1996641.

KANUNGO, D.; ARRORA, M.; SARKAR, S.; GUPTA, R. Landslide Susceptibility Zonation (LSZ) mapping: a review. Journal of South Asia Disaster Studies, v. 2, p. 81-105, 2009.

KÜHNL, M.; SAPENA, M.; WURM, M; GEIß, C.; TAUBENBÖCK, H. Multitemporal landslide exposure and vulnerability assessment in Medellín, Colombia. Natural Hazards, v. 119, p. 883-906, 2023. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05679-z.

MANZAN, M.; BACARO, G.; NARDINI, A.; CASAGRANDE, G.; PEZZI A.; PETRUZZELLIS, F.; TORDONI, E.; FONTOLAN G. Climate Change Risk and Vulnerabilities Analysis in Trieste SECAP. Sustainability, v. 14, n. 10, 5973, 2022. DOI: 10.3390/su14105973.

MARCHEZINI, V.; WISNER, B. Challenges for vulnerability reduction in Brazil: Insights from the PAR framework. In: MARCHEZINI, V.; WISNER, B.; LONDE, L. R.; SAITO, S. M. (orgs.). Reduction of vulnerability to disasters: from knowledge to action. São Carlos: Rima Editora, 2017. p. 57-96.

MATOS, L. J.; VIEIRA, B. C.; FERREIRA, C. J. Avaliação da vulnerabilidade de construções a corridas de detritos por meio do método PTVA (Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment). Boletim Paulista de Geografia, v. 1, p. 42-65, 2017.

MOSAFFAIE, J.; SALEHPOUR JAM, A.; SARFARAZ, F. Landslide risk assessment based on susceptibility and vulnerability. Environment, Development and Sustainability, v. 26, p. 9285-9303, 2024. DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-03093-4.

OPRICOVIC, S. Multicriteria Optimization of Civil Engineering Systems. Orientador: Gwo-Hshiung Tzeng. 1998. Thesis (PhD em Civil Engineering ) – Faculty of Civil Engineering, Belgrade, 1998.

PARDESHI, S. D.; AUTADE, S. E.; PARDESHI, S. S. Landslide hazard assessment: recent trends and techniques. SpringerPlus, v. 2, n. 523, p. 1-11, 2013. DOI: 10.1186/2193-1801-2-523.

PHAM, Q. B.; KUMAR, M.; DI NUNNO, F.; ELBELTAGI, A.; GRANATA, F.; REZA, A.; ISLAM, M. T.; TALUKDAR, S.; NGUYEN, X. C.; AHMED, A. N. AHN, D. T. Groundwater level prediction using machine learning algorithms in a drought-prone area. Neural Computing & Applications. v.34, p. 10751–10773. 2022. DOI: 10.1007/s00521-022-07009-7.

RAHMAN, G.; BACHA, A, S.; MOAZZAM, M. F. U.; RAHMAN, A. U.; MAHMOOD, S.; ALMOHAMAD, H.; DUGHAIRI, A. A. A.; AL-MUTIRY, M.; ALRASHEEDI, M.; ABDO, H. G. Assessment of landslide susceptibility, exposure, vulnerability, and risk in shahpur valley, eastern hindu kush. Frontiers in Earth Sciences, v. 10, p. 1-23, 2022. DOI: 10.3389/feart.2022.953627.

RIBEIRO, D. S.; SAITO, S.; ALVALÁ, R. C. S. Disaster vulnerability analysis of small towns in Brazil. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. v. 68, p. 1-28, 2022. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102726.

SANTACANA, N.; BAEZA, B.; COROMINAS, J.; PAZ, A.; MARTURIÁ, J. A GIS-Based Multivariate Statistical Analysis for Shallow Landslide Susceptibility Mapping in La Pobla de Lillet Area (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain). Natural Hazards, v. 30, p. 281-295, 2003. DOI: 10.1023/B:NHAZ.0000007169.28860.80.

SHAH, N. A.; SHAFIQUE, M.; ISHFAQ, M; FAISAL, K; VAN DER MEIJDE, M. Integrated Approach for Landslide Risk Assessment Using Geoinformation Tools and Field Data in Hindukush Mountain Ranges, Northern Pakistan. Sustainability, v. 15, n. 4, 2023. DOI: 10.3390/su15043102.

TEHRANI, F. S.; CALVELLO, M.; LIU, Z.; ZHANG, L.; LACASSE, S. Machine learning and landslide studies: recent advances and applications. Natural Hazards, v. 114, p. 1197–1245, 2022. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05423-7.

VANDINE, D.; MOORE, G.; WISE, M.; VANBURKISK, C.; GERATH, R. 2004. Technical terms and methods. In: WISE, M., MOORE, G., VANDINE, D. (orgs.). Landslide risk case studies in forest development planning and operations. British Columbia: Ministry of Forests, Forest Science Program, Abstract of Land Management Handbook 56, 2004. p. 13-26,.

VAN WESTEN, C.; VAN ASCH, T.; SOETERS, R. Landslide hazard and risk zonation - why is it still so difficult? Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, v. 65, p. 167-184, 2006. DOI: 10.1007/s10064-005-0023-0.

WISNER, B.; BLAIKIE, P.; CANNON, T.; DAVIS, I. At risk: natural hazards, people’s vulnerability and disasters. 2. ed. Londres: Routledge, 2003.

YU, M.; YANG, C.; LI, Y. Big data in natural disaster management: A review. Geosciences, v. 8, n. 165, p. 1-26, 2018. DOI: 10.3390/geosciences8050165.

Published

2025-07-17

How to Cite

Silva, A. R. da, & Vieira, B. C. (2025). Vulnerability assessment using quantitative approaches: a review: une revue. Geography Magazine, 42(2), 217–237. https://doi.org/10.51359/2238-6211.2025.264530