"Political risk" manegement in the mozambican democracy: review and prospects

Abstract

This article presents a critical perspective of the Mozambican democracy from 1992 (General Peace Agreement signed in Rome between Renamo and Government of Mozambique) until the current days. Its key idea is based on the concept of “political risk”. It identifies successive phases related different political risk management modalities within the bipartisan system. The latter is comprised by Frelimo, the incumbent party, and Renamo, the opposition – this bipartisan feature led to typical ambiguities of a “blocked democracy”, whose nature was only fully revealed in 1999 during the second general elections. After the 2004 election of President Armando Guebuza and even more after the Xth Fremlimo Congress in September 2012, the political risk was managed in a tougher way: the de-democratization process was accelerated and Mozambique became a semi-dictatorial country. The management of political and social risks became even more repressive, using any means available, although ensuring that the law was not blatantly breached. The government reaction to the 2008 and 2010 street demonstrations as well as the 2009 and 2013 electoral processes – all to the detriment of a third party, the MDM – represent the main examples of this new phase. Based on this historical analysis, this article presents prospective scenarios, reflecting on how the “political risk” will be managed in the future.