El impacto de las ineficiencias de la logística de carga en la producción económica de Nigeria
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51359/2594-8040.2025.267050Palabras clave:
logística de carga, producción económica, Nigeria, ineficiencia logística, modelo ARDLResumen
Esta investigación analiza el impacto de las ineficiencias de la logística de carga en la producción económica de Nigeria combinando modelos teóricos con análisis econométrico. Metodológicamente, el estudio emplea un marco de rezago distribuido autorregresivo (ARDL) para cuantificar los impactos a corto y largo plazo de la ineficiencia logística en la producción de Nigeria, aplicando métodos de cointegración para identificar relaciones de equilibrio. Los hallazgos indican una fuerte asociación negativa a largo plazo entre la producción económica real de Nigeria y las ineficiencias de la logística de carga: los largos tiempos de permanencia en los puertos, la congestión del transporte y los costos del flete han reducido sustancialmente el PIB de Nigeria en las últimas décadas. La elasticidad estimada del modelo ARDL es de aproximadamente -0,33, lo que aclara que se trata de un resultado econométrico, y el término de corrección de errores del modelo muestra una rápida convergencia hacia el equilibrio a largo plazo una vez que se reducen las ineficiencias. La evidencia destaca que mejorar el desempeño logístico generaría aumentos significativos en la producción, en consonancia con las predicciones teóricas y la evidencia global. Los ajustes a corto plazo son parciales, pero el significativo período de corrección de errores indica un rápido ajuste al equilibrio una vez que se reducen las ineficiencias. El documento proporciona tablas econométricas de estimaciones de ARDL con sólidos diagnósticos y significancia para las variables clave. Los resultados subrayan que la reducción de los cuellos de botella y la mejora de la infraestructura logística impulsarían el comercio, aumentarían la productividad y potenciarían el crecimiento económico. El estudio concluye con recomendaciones políticas, como la modernización de la infraestructura de transporte, las reformas portuarias, la adopción de tecnología y las mejoras regulatorias, para abordar las ineficiencias en la logística de carga, esenciales para que Nigeria impulse un mayor crecimiento y aproveche al máximo su potencial comercial.
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