Mudanças climáticas nos polos: uma avaliação multidisciplinar
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v16.6.p3204-3224Palavras-chave:
Artic, antartic, climate models, sea ice, polar amplificationResumo
Nos últimos anos, as rápidas mudanças ambientais nas regiões polares têm atraído considerável atenção política, pública e científica. A amplificação polar é uma característica importante do sistema climático, em resposta ao forçamento do dióxido de carbono (CO2), que resulta na perda de marinho, derretimento do manto de gelo e liberação de metano através do derretimento do solo congelado. De uma perspectiva física, este artigo utiliza dados de satélite, reanálise e modelos climáticos para analisar a amplificação polar e mudança de gelo marinho no tempo passado, presente e cenários futuros. De uma perspectiva interdisciplinar, discutimos quais os potenciais efeitos ambientais, socioeconômicos e políticos associados a essas mudanças. Os resultados, a partir de dados observados, mostraram aumento do aquecimento e mudanças rápidas na cobertura de gelo marinho nas regiões polares. As simulações climáticas mostraram um aumento sem precedentes na temperatura do ar e uma rápida perda de gelo marinho em resposta ao aumento de CO2, mesmo em cenários de baixa emissão. Isso resulta em uma série de efeitos físicos, ambientais e socioeconômicos que precisam ser cuidadosamente considerados. As mudanças climáticas nas regiões polares, no entanto, oferecem novas oportunidades incluindo o aumento local da pesca e abertura de novas rotas de navegação, que impactam substancialmente a economia mundial. Ao mesmo tempo, observam-se consequências ambientais críticas associadas à riscos socioeconômicos e ecológicos, como migração e extinção de espécies, aumento do nível do mar, aumento na intensidade e frequência de eventos extremos em médias latitudes, e danos a infraestrutura causados pelo derretimento do solo congelado. Mesmo com os avanços e melhorias na modelagem climática nas últimas décadas, a natureza exata dessas interações não lineares ainda está em debate.
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