Effects of hydroclimatic variables on cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) production in Mocajuba, Eastern Amazon
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v18.05.p3558-3572Keywords:
Mudanças climáticas, Cacau, Rio Tocantins, AmazôniaAbstract
The cacao tree (Theobroma cacao L.) is a plant native to the American continent, which requires a warm, humid climate with average annual temperatures of no less than 21°C and satisfactory rainfall of between 1,500 mm and 2,500 mm per year. The objective of the present work was to evaluate the effects of hydroclimatic variables (precipitation, air humidity, temperature and maximum elevation of the Tocantins River) on cocoa production in the municipality of Mocajuba. A database was used with 32-year time series (1990 to 2021) of the variables analyzed available from different sources, which were subjected to descriptive statistics, multivariate permutation analysis, principal component analysis and a generalized linear model. The results obtained allowed us to identify a trend of increasing rainfall and temperature in the sample period and a reduction in air humidity. Multivariate permutation analysis identified the influence of the variables on cocoa production, while the generalized linear model indicated that temperature is the only environmental variable that positively influences cocoa production and that an increase of 1ºC in temperature results in an increase of 120 tons of cocoa beans. Under current conditions, the municipality of Mocajuba preserves the edaphoclimatic characteristics for growing cocoa, but there is a tendency for temperatures to rise and humidity to fall, which could harm Mocajuba's cocoa crops if these variables follow this trend.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Daniel Fernandes Rodrigues Barroso, José Francisco Berrêdo, Marcia Aparecida da Silva Pimentel , Maurício do Nascimento Moura, Rony Peterson Santos Almeida, Marcelo Cordeiro Thalês, Maria do Perpétuo Socorro Progene Vilhena
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