Influência da precipitação na resposta do modelo espectral-fenológico de estimativa de produtividade da cana-de-açúcar (Influence of precipitation in the response of spectral-phenology model)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5935/1984-2295.20150035Keywords:
NDVI, Ano-safra, Dias após o corte, Massa seca dos colmosAbstract
Apesar da evolução e importância econômica e social do agronegócio para o Brasil, existe, ainda, uma grande dificuldade em estimar com a precisão e a antecipação necessárias a safra das principais culturas agrícolas do país, o que justifica o estudo e a elaboração de metodologias empregando o sensoriamento remoto para essa finalidade. Assim, este trabalho teve o objetivo de avaliar a resposta do modelo espectral-fenológico proposto por Pellegrino (2001) na estimativa da produtividade da cana-de-açúcar baseado em informações espectrais obtidas da série temporal dos valores de NDVI. Os resultados obtidos foram confrontados com a precipitação do período. Os testes foram realizados em quatro safras (2003/2004, 2004/2005, 2005/2006 e 2006/2007) e seis municípios localizados no Estado de São Paulo (Araraquara, Cravinhos, Jaboticabal, Pitangueiras, Ribeirão Preto e Sertãozinho), e indicam que o modelo parece ser uma boa estratégia para estimar a produtividade da cana-de-açúcar com erros inferiores a 6% com cerca de 90 a 152 dias antes de antecedência em relação à próxima safra.
A B S T R A C T
Brazil is the first producer of sugar cane in the world. Despite the economic and social importance of agribusiness to Brazil, it is still very difficult to estimate the harvest of the main agricultural crops with the precision and anticipation needed, justifying the study and development of new methods based on the use of remote sensing data. This study aimed to evaluate the response of the model proposed by spectral-phenological Pellegrino (2001) to estimate the productivity of sugar cane based on information obtained from spectral time series of NDVI values. The results were compared with the precipitation of the period. The tests were performed in four seasons (2003/2004, 2004/2005, 2005/2006 and 2006/2007) and six municipalities located in the State of Sao Paulo (Araraquara, Cravinhos, Jaboticabal, Pitangueiras, Ribeirão Preto and Sertãozinho), and indicate that the model seems a good strategy to estimate the productivity of sugarcane with errors less than 6% with about 90 to 152 days before the harvest.
Keywords: NDVI, crop seasons, days after harvest, dry weight of stalks.
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Copyright (c) 2015 Cristina Rodrigues Nascimento, Fábio Eduardo Dias Rocha Brunialti, Jurandir Zullo Júnior
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