Estudo climático dos eventos de precipitação associados a alagamentos urbanos no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul (Climatic study of rainfall events related to urban flash floods in Rio Grande do Sul State)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v11.6.p2010-2017Keywords:
chuvas, eventos extremos, El Niño, variabilidade climática, alertaAbstract
Eventos de chuva intensa são caracterizados por altas taxas de precipitação que acarretam em vários transtornos sociais. Contudo, uma determinada taxa de precipitação que provoca transtornos em uma cidade pode não representar riscos em outra, dado que cada local tem sua própria geografia. Este trabalho, baseado no histórico de alagamentos, tem como objetivo a análise dos eventos de precipitação separando-os em casos de atenção (menos severos) e alerta (mais severos) para os quatro maiores centros urbanos do Rio Grande do Sul: Porto Alegre, Pelotas, Caxias do Sul e Santa Maria. Porto Alegre, a cidade mais urbanizada, é a que apresenta menores limiares, indicando maior facilidade para a ocorrência destes eventos. Os limiares foram aplicados nos dados observados para a análise das ocorrências do período de 1961-2013. Santa Maria apresentou o número maior de casos, e Porto Alegre apresentou uma maior proporção de casos de alerta sobre os casos totais. Os resultados mostram que, no geral, há muita variabilidade anual no número de casos, com leve tendência positiva, sendo o inverno a estação preponderante. Além disso, verificou-se, na maior parte, correlação moderada entre o número de casos e as fases do El Niño e do Índice do Atlântico Sul.
A B S T R A C T
Intense precipitation events are characterized by high rainfall rates that lead to several social problems. However, a specific rainfall rate that causes damage in one city may not mean risks in another, since each location has its own geographical characteristics. Based on flooding records, the aim of this work is to analyze the precipitation events separating them in attention cases (less severe) and warning cases (more severe) for the four largest urban centers of Rio Grande do Sul: Porto Alegre, Pelotas, Caxias do Sul and Santa Maria. Porto Alegre, the most urbanized city, is the one with the lowest thresholds, indicating greater chance for the occurrence of such events. Thresholds were applied on observed dataset in order to analyze the occurrences on 1961-2013 period. Santa Maria presented the highest number of cases, and Porto Alegre presented the higher proportion of warning cases on total cases. Overall, the results show great annual variability of number of cases, with slight positive trend, being winter the preponderant season. In addition, there was generally a moderate correlation between number of cases and El Niño and South Atlantic Index phases.
Keywords: rainfall; extreme events; El Niño; climatic variability; warning
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