Frequência de Eventos Extremos Diários de Precipitação em Manaus – AM e Suas Relações com o El Niño-Oscilação Sul
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v17.1.p84-99Keywords:
Evento extremo de precipitação, El Niño-Oscilação Sul, Tendência.Abstract
Esta pesquisa teve como objetivo analisar os eventos extremos diários de precipitação (EEDP) ocorridos em Manaus, AM, e sua relação com eventos de El Niño-Oscilação Sul (ENOS). Foram utilizados dados diários de precipitação para o período de 1979–2019. O cálculo dos quantis foi empregado aos dados e os EEDP foram definidos com base no percentil de 90% das séries diárias de precipitação separadas sazonalmente. Variações interanuais e tendências de longo prazo na ocorrência de EEDP também foram avaliadas. O teste de Mann-Kendall e o Método de Sen foram utilizados para avaliar a tendência dos EEDP. Foram calculadas as correlações lineares com os padrões oceânicos e atmosféricos a partir das anomalias mensais de Temperatura da Superfície do Mar tropical global e do fluxo de umidade integrado verticalmente e de sua divergência. A frequência e intensidade dos EEDP apresentaram comportamento similar ao da precipitação total sazonal, com acentuada variabilidade interanual. Maiores ocorrências e frequência de EEDP ocorreram em Março–Maio. A intensidade dos EEDP não mostrou grande diferença entre as fases do ENOS quando se compara o intervalo inter-quartil. Quando observamos a mediana, os anos de La Niña (LN) modulam a intensidade dos EEDP durante suas fases de desenvolvimento, madura e final. Tendência de aumento de EEDP ocorreu no trimestre de Dezembro–Fevereiro. Foi observado que o Atlântico Tropical Norte é uma das principais fontes no transporte de umidade para a região. Este estudo mostrou que a variabilidade da precipitação sazonal e eventos extremos estão associadas às condições globais de TSM.Downloads
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