Assessment of CMIP6 Simulations over Tropical South America
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v14.3.p1282-1295Palavras-chave:
CMIP6, tropical South America, validation, atmospheric variablesResumo
This study assesses the performance of 46 global climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) - CMIP6 and selects better models in simulating the precipitation and the air temperature at 2 meters height climatology over tropical South America (SA) during the historical period (1996-2014). For this reason, some statistical measures are computed. A great number of models have a small bias when compared with observation, however, a lot of them have a poor performance in terms of the Willmott agreement index, which indicates a low performance in representing the temporal variability. Among the 46 models, E3SM-1-0, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-AerChem, EC-Earth3-Veg, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR and TaiESM1 have a better performance in reproducing SA climate. When the ensemble of the 7 models is compared with that 46 models, there is a reduction in the bias of the variables under study in some sectors of the SA. This indicates that the use of 7 models is enough for application in other studies.
Avaliação de Simulações do CMIP6 sobre a América do Sul Tropical
R E S U M O
Este estudo avalia o desempenho de 46 modelos climáticos globais do Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Fase 6) - CMIP6 e seleciona os que melhor simulam a climatologia da precipitação e temperatura do ar a 2 metros de altura sobre a América do Sul (AS) tropical durante o período histórico (1996-2014). Para isso, são calculadas algumas medidas estatísticas. Enquanto a maioria dos modelos apresenta um viés aceitável quando comparados com a observação, muitos deles mostram uma baixa performance em termos do índice de concordância de Willmott, o que indica menor habilidade em representar a variabilidade temporal. Entre os 46 modelos, E3SM-1-0, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-AerChem, EC-Earth3-Veg, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR e TaiESM1 têm maior habilidade em reproduzir o clima da AS. Quando o ensemble desses 7 modelos é comparado com composto de 46 modelos, apresenta redução no viés das variáveis em estudo em alguns setores da AS. Isso indica, que a utilização de 7 modelos é suficiente para aplicação em outros estudos.
Palavras-chave: CMIP6; América do Sul Tropical; validação; variáveis atmosféricas
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