Avaliação de Desempenho dos Modelos Operacionais WRF, BRAMS, ETA e BAM em Prever Ciclogêneses
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v19.01.p086-104Keywords:
modelos, ciclogêneses, posicionamentoAbstract
Cyclogenesis occurs between the west of the South Atlantic Ocean and the coast of the South American continent. Cyclones cause major impacts on society and accurate atmospheric models are needed to mitigate environmental impacts. The current study aims to evaluate the performance of operational runs of the WRF, BRAMS, ETA and BAM models, which was carried out through synoptic analyzes between September 2022 and August 2023. There are two main purposes: to identify errors to assist in improving the models and publicize errors for use in operational meteorology. 92 occurrences of cyclones were found and, per quarter, there were 20 in SON22, 25 in D22JF23, 22 in MAM23 and 25 in JJA23. The models presented larger cyclone center position errors in longitudes. The first (second) most persistent deviations are to the northwest (southeast) which suggests delay (advancement). The longer the event is forecast, the worse the outcome of cyclone positioning tends to be, but exceptions occur due to initial conditions. The WRF (BRAMS and ETA) presented the best results in the 24 and 48h (96 and 120h) forecasts. BAM achieved better results in a few cases. The inadequate simulation of the Andes Mountains is the main factor behind the errors.
Downloads
References
ACM, Arctic Climatology and Meteorology (2024). Cyclogenesis em https://web.archive.org/web/20060830135741/http://www.nsidc.org/arcticmet/glossary/cyclogenesis.html. Wayback Machine National Snow and Ice Data Center.
Alpert, J.; Hong, S. Y.; Kim, Y. J (1996). Sensitivity of cyclogenesis to lower tropospheric enhancement of gravity wave drag using the environmental modeling center medium range model. In: Preprints. 11th Conference on NWP. Norfolk, Virginia. Am. Meteorol. Soc. p. 322–323.
Betts, A. K.; Miller, M. J (2009). A new convective adjustment scheme: part II: single column tests using GATE wave, BOMEX, ATEX and Arctic air-mass data sets. Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society, v. 112, p. 693-709, 1986. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1256/smsqj.47307
Bretherton, C. S.; Park, S (2009). A new moist turbulence parameterization in the Community Atmosphere Model. Journal of Climate, v. 22, n. 12, p. 3422-3448. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2556.1
Charnock, H (1955). Wind stress on a water surface. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 81, 639–640. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49708135027
Clark, D. B.; Mercado, L. M.; Sitch, S.; Jones, C. D (2011). The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description – Part 2: Carbon fluxes and vegetation dynamics, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 701–722, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-701. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-701-2011
Fels, S. B.; Schwarzkopf, M. D (1975). The simplified exchange approximation: a new method for radiative transfer calculations. Journal of the Atmosp Sciences, v. 32, p. 1475-1488. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1975)032<1475:TSEAAN>2.0.CO;2
Fedorova, N (2016). Capítulo 3. Vórtice ciclônico de médios níveis e sua influência no tempo do nordeste brasileiro.. In: André Becker Nunes, Glauber Lopes Mariano. (Org.). Meteorologia em tópicos ? volume 3. 1ed. Pelotas-RS.
Ferrier, B. S.; Lin, Y.; Black, T.; Rogers, E (2002). Implementation of a new grid-scale cloud and precipitation scheme in the NCEP Eta model. In: Conference on Numerical weather prediction, San Antonio, TX. Proceedings… Am. Met. Soc., p 280–283.
Freitas, S. R; G. A. Grell, A. Molod, et al (2018). "Assessing the Grell-Freitas Convection Parameterization in the NASA GEOS Modeling System." Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2017MS001251
Gan, M. A.; Rao, B. V (1991). Surface ciclogenesis over South America. Monthly Weather Review, v. 119, p. 293-302. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1991)119<1293:SCOSA>2.0.CO;2
Gan, M.A.; Rao, V.B (1994). The influence of the Andes Cordillera on transient disturbances. Monthly Weather Review, v. 122, n. 6, p.1141-1157. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<1141:TIOTAC>2.0.CO;2
Gan, M. A.; Ferreira, S. H.; Costa, K. R (2019). Ciclones em Superfície nas Latitudes Austrais. Parte III: Energética. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, v. 35, n. 2, 281. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/0102-7786352011
Green, B. W., Zhang, F (2013). Impacts of Air–Sea Flux Parameterizations on the Intensity and Structure of Tropical Cyclones, Monthly Weather Review, 141(7), 2308-2324. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00274.1
Hart, R.E (2003). A cyclone phase space derived from thermal wind and thermal asymmetry. Mon. Wea. Rev., v. 131, p. 585-616. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<0585:ACPSDF>2.0.CO;2
Hong, S.-Y.; Noh, Y.; Dudhia, J (2006). A New Vertical Diffusion Package with an Explicit Treatment of Entrainment Processes. Mon. Wea. Rev. 134, 2318. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3199.1
Hoskins, Brian J.; Hodges, Kevin I (2002). New perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, v. 59, n. 6, p. 1041-1061. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2002)059<1041:NPOTNH>2.0.CO;2
Iacono, M. J., Delamere, J. S., Mlawer, E. J (2008). Radiative Forcing by Long-Lived Greenhouse Gases: Calculations with the AER Radiative Transfer Models. J. Geophys. Res. 113, 29. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD009944
Janjic, Z.I (1994). The step-mountain eta coordinate model: further developments of the convection, viscous sublayer, and turbulence closure schemes. Monthly Weather Review, v.122, n-5, p.927–945. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<0927:TSMECM>2.0.CO;2
Lacis, A. A.; Hansen, J. E (1974). A parameterization of the absorption of solar radiation in earth’s atmosphere. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, v. 31, p.118-133. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1974)031<0118:APFTAO>2.0.CO;2
Mendes, et al (2002). On precursors of South American Cyclogenesis. Tellus, v. 59, p.114-121. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2006.00215.x
Mesinger, F.; Jovic, D. The Eta slope adjustment: contender for an optimal steepening in a piecewise-linear advection scheme? Comparison tests. NCEP Office Note 439.
Mesinger, F.; Veljovic, K.; Chou, S. C (2016). The Eta Model: Design, Use, and Added Value, Topics in Climate Modeling, Theodore Hromadka and Prasada Rao (Ed.), InTech. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5772/64956
Mellor, G. L. and Yamada, T (1982). Development of a turbulence closure model for DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/RG020i004p00851
geophysical fluid problems, Rev. Geophys., 20, 851–875.
Morais, M.D.C; Gan, M.A.; Yoshida, M.C (2021). Features of the upper tropospheric cyclonic vortices of Northeast Brazil in life cycle stages. Int J Climatol v. 41, p. E39–E58. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6839
Morcrette, J.-J.; H.W.; Barker, J.N.S.; Cole, M.J (2018). Impact of a new radiation package, McRad, in the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System, Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 4773-4798. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2363.1
Moreira, D. S.; Longo, K. M.; Freitas, S. R (2017). Modelling the radiative effects of biomass burning aerosols on carbon fluxes in the Amazon region, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14785-14810. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14785-2017
Morrison, H.; Thompson, G.; Tatarskii, V (2009). Impact of cloud microphysics on the development of trailing stratiform precipitation in a simulated squall line: Comparison of one-and two-moment schemes. Monthly weather review, v. 137, n. 3, p. 991-1007. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2556.1
Necco, G (1982). Comportamiento de vortices ciclonicos en el area Sudamericana durante el FGGE: Ciclogenesis. Meteorologica, v.13, n. 1-2, p. 7-19.
Oreopoulos, L., Mlawer, E., Delamere, J (2012). The Continual Intercomparison of Radiation Codes: Results from Phase I, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D06118. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016821
Pinheiro, H. R (2010). Validação do método TRACK para identificação objetiva dos vórtices ciclônicos de altos níveis em regiões subtropicais. 132p. Dissertação (Mestrado em Meteorologia) - Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São José dos Campos.
Reboita, M. S (2008). Ciclones Extratropicais sobre o Atlântico Sul: Simulação Climática e Experimentos de Sensibilidade. Tese de Doutorado em Meteorologia, Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas – IAG–USP, p. 359.
Reboita, M. S.; DA ROCHA, R. P.; AMBRIZZI, T.; SUGAHARA S (2009). South Atlantic Ocean Cyclogenesis Climatology Simulated by Regional Climate Model (RegCM3). Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0668-7. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0668-7
Reboita, M. S.; Marrafon, V. H (2021). Ciclones extratropicais: o que são, climatologia e impactos no Brasil. Terrae Didatica 17:e021032. DOI: https://doi.org/10.20396/td.v17i00.8666028
Rodrigues, M. L. G.; Franco, D.; Sugahara, S (2004). Climatologia de Frentes Frias no Litoral de Santa Catarina. Revista Brasileira de Geofísica, v.22, n. 2, p. 135-151. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/S0102-261X2004000200004
Rodrigues, L. F; Tomita, S. S.; Ruiz, R. S. R (2019). Large Parallel version for the BRAMS with Runge-Kutta dynamical core. In: Conference of Computational Interdisciplinary Science.
Rogers, E.; T. Black, B. Ferrier, Y (2001). Changes to the NCEP Meso Eta Analysis and Forecast System: Increase in resolution, new cloud microphysics, modified precipitation assimilation, modified 3DVAR analysis.
Satyamurty P; Pinheiro, S. R; Maringolo L. M.A (1980). On the stationary trough generated by the Andes. Mon. Wea. Rev.,108 , 510-520. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108<0510:OTSTGB>2.0.CO;2
SEMPLE, A. T (2003). A review and unification of conceptual models of Cyclogenesis. Meteorol. Appl. 10, 39–59. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S135048270300505X
Seluchi, M.E; Norte, F.A; Satyamurty, P; Chou, S.C (2003). Analysis of three situations of Foehn effect over the Andes (Zonda wind) using the Eta/CPTEC regional model. Wea & Forec, 18, 481-501. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2003)18<481:AOTSOT>2.0.CO;2
Sinclair, M. R (1996). Reply. Monthly Weather Review, v. 124, p. 2615-2618. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124<2615:R>2.0.CO;2
Taljaard, J. J (1967). Development, distribution and movement of cyclones and anticyclones in the Southern Hemisphere during IGY. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, v. 6, p. 973-987. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1967)006<0973:DDAMOC>2.0.CO;2
Tie, X., Madronich, S., Walters, S., Zhang, R (2003). Effects of clouds on photolysis and oxydants in the troposphere, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 1-25. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003659
Thompson, G.; Eidhammer, T (2014). A study of aerosol impacts on clouds and precipitation development in a large winter cyclone. J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 3636-3658. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-13-0305.1
Zhang, D.; Anthes, R. A (1982). A High-Resolution Model of the Planetary Boundary Layer—Sensitivity Tests and Comparisons with SESAME-79 Data, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 21(11), 1594-1609. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1982)021<1594:AHRMOT>2.0.CO;2
Zhang, C.; Wang, Y (2017). Projected Future Changes of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North and South Pacific in a 20-Km-Mesh Regional Climate Model. J. Clim. 30, 5923–5941. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0597.1
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 1969 BRUNO BRITO
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with Revista Brasileira de Geografia Física agree to the following terms:
Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
Authors are permitted to make their work available online before or during the editorial process, on academic social networks, digital repositories, or preprint servers. After publication in Revista Brasileira de Geografia Física, authors are expected to update the preprint or postprint versions on the platforms where they were originally made available, providing a link to the final published version and any other relevant information, with proper recognition of authorship and the initial publication in this journal.
You are free to:
Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format for any purpose, even commercially.
Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially.
The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.
Under the following terms:
Attribution — You must give appropriate credit , provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made . You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.
