ANALYSIS OF THERMAL VARIATION AND RAINFALL INDEX IN HYDROGRAPHIC BASINS IN THE BRAZILIAN SEMI-ARID RID ACCORDING TO CMIP6 PROJECTIONS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v18.1.p001-018.Keywords:
Climate changes, Water availability, Biomass conservation, IPCC AR6Abstract
The hydrographic sub-basins of Sobradinho, Três Marias, and Retiro Baixo are located in the São Francisco River, covering a significant portion of Northeast Brazil. They play a crucial role in biomass production and providing quality water for the region, contributing significantly to biodiversity conservation. Efficient water resource management is essential to ensure effective water use.Climate change, driven by human activity, has significant impacts on the global hydrological cycle, including rising temperatures, glacier melting, changes in ocean currents and rainfall patterns, as well as a reduction in the amount of water stored in rivers and lakes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6) is an important report that assesses climate knowledge and describes how climate change affects various climatic elements.Understanding water flows is also crucial for planning measures to protect and recover water resource quality. Climatology in the sub-basins during the historical period (1990-2014) differs from scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 (2015-2035; 2045-2065; 2079-2100), revealing increased temperatures and variations in precipitation.Regarding the results, models ACESSESM1, MRIESM2, MIROC6, and CanESM2 between the period 2015 to 2065 show an increase in temperature (1.5 to 2ºC) in all sub-basins. However, there are divergences in precipitation projections. While MIROC and CanESM2 indicate a reduction in precipitation, ACESSESM1 and MRIESM2 predict an increase in precipitation.
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