Hydrodynamic Modeling in the Determination of Extreme Flow Events in the Lower São Francisco River
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v19.02.p702-7012.Keywords:
PortuguêsAbstract
Extreme flow events in the Baixo São Francisco (BSF), often associated with the operation of the dam complex, pose a growing threat due to intense occupation of the floodplains. This study applied one-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling (HEC-RAS), coupled with a 10m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) generated from ALOS PALSAR images, to map areas susceptible to flooding under different flow scenarios (from 1,400 to 9,000 m³ s⁻¹). Frequency analysis, using historical data from four streamflow gauges, indicated the Gumbel distribution as the most suitable for estimating extreme flows, with a maximum flow of 9,107 m³ s⁻¹ associated with a 100-year return period. The results revealed a heterogeneous pattern of vulnerability along the studied stretch. The municipalities of Propriá/Telha (Area 1) stood out as the main risk hotspot, with significant flooding reaching the consolidated urban area for flows above 5,000 m³ s⁻¹. In contrast, the urban centers of Neópolis (Area 2) and towns near the river mouth (Area 3) showed greater natural resilience due to elevated topography or microreliefs, with impacts restricted to linear infrastructure and rural areas. It is concluded that the employed methodology is effective for identifying risk areas, providing essential inputs for differentiated territorial planning and disaster management actions in the BSF.
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