Avaliação Preliminar da Sensibilidade dos Modelos do CMIP5 a Precipitação Sazonal do Brasil Tropical (Preliminary Evaluation of the sensitivity of the CMIP5 Models Seasonal Precipitation of Tropical Brazil)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5935/1984-2295.20130053Keywords:
CMIP5, Simulação Climática, Cenários Futuros.Abstract
As perfomances das simulação do clima presente sobre o Brasil Tropical (BrT) são avaliadas com base em 8 modelos de simulação climática globais, pertencentes ao conjunto de experimentos “phase five of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project” (CMIP5). Em comparação com as observações, os modelos são capazes de capturar as características dominantes da precipitação pluvial durante o período de 1979 a 2005, incluindo o padrão espacial e variações sazonais, entretanto avaliações por trimestre regionalizadas mostraram discrepâncias entre os modelos e o observado. Em termos de correlação o trimestre de Março a Maio (MAM) foi mais bem representado pelos modelos, e o trimestre o de Dezembro a Fevereiro (DJF) obteve pior desempenho. O RMSE médio foi mais elevado durante o período chuvoso (verão e outono austral), e valores menos intenso durante o período de estiagem. Os resultados dos modelos do CMIP5 mostram que ainda existe dificuldade em simular o padrão climático de algumas regiões e períodos sazonais. A B S T R A C T The performances of the simulation of the present climate of the Tropical Brazil (BrT) are evaluated based on eight global climate simulation models, belonging to the set of experiments "phase five of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project" (CMIP5). In comparison with observations, the models are able to capture the dominant features of rainfall during the period 1979-2005, including the spatial and seasonal variations, however assessments quarter regionalized showed discrepancies between the models and the observed. In terms of correlation the quarter March to May (MAM) was best represented by the models, and the quarter from December to February (DJF) had worse performance. The average RMSE was higher during the rainy season (austral summer and autumn), and values less intense during the dry period. The results of the CMIP5 models show that there is still difficulty in simulating the climatic pattern of some regions and seasons. Keywords: CMIP5, Simulação Climática, Cenários Futuros.Downloads
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Copyright (c) 2013 Naurinete Barreto, David Mendes, Paulo Sergio Lucio
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