Validação de um modelo climático simplificado adaptado para simular os efeitos do aumento da concentração de CO2 associados à teoria dos raios cósmicos galácticos (Validation of a simplified climate model adapted to simulate the effects of increased CO2 concentration associated with the galactic cosmic rays theory )

Emerson Damasceno Oliveira, José Henrique Fernandez, David Mendes, Maria Helena Constantino Spyrides, Weber Andrade Gonçalves

Resumo


Esta pesquisa teve como proposta principal simular a atuação dos Raios Cósmicos Galácticos (RCG) sobre o balanço energético global na atmosfera terrestre, considerando-se para tanto a atuação do dióxido de carbono (CO2) individualmente e em conjunto com o fluxo dos RCG. Deste modo, desenvolveu-se uma versão modificada do modelo climático Global Resolved Energy Balance (GREB), possibilitando-se a simulação de novos cenários. O novo modelo está sendo chamado de GREB-GCR, do inglês Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR). Os resultados sugerem que a ação em conjunto dos RCG e do CO2, Experimento 20 (EXP20), apresentou uma melhor representação da temperatura superficial quando comparada à ação individual isolada do CO2, Experimento 12 (EXP12). Este comportamento está evidenciado principalmente sobre os oceanos. Espacialmente identificou-se a partir da Raiz do Erro Quadrático Médio (REQM) que o EXP20 apresentou uma redução do erro sobre a região tropical quando comparado ao EXP12. Todavia, destaca-se que nos dois experimentos o modelo GREB-GCR apresentou erros mais expressivos sobre as regiões polares e locais de grande altitude.

 

 

A B S T R A C T

This research had as main proposal the establishment and simulation of the Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) role on the global energy balance in the Earth’s atmosphere, considering the performance of carbon dioxide (CO2) individually and together with the GCR fluxes. In this way, a modified version of the Global Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) climate model was developed, making it possible to simulate new scenarios. The new model is being called GREB-GCR. The results suggest that the joint action of GCR and CO2, Experiment 20 (EXP20), presented a better representation on the surface temperature when compared to the exclusive action of CO2, Experiment 12 (EXP12). This fact is mainly evidenced on the oceans. It was identified from the root mean square error (REQM) that the EXP20 presented a spatially reduction of the error on the tropical region while compared to the EXP12. However, it is noteworthy that in both experiments the GREB-GCR model presented more significant errors on high altitude and polar regions.

Key-words: simulation, galactic, GREB-GCR, climate.


Palavras-chave


simulação, galácticos, GREB-GCR, clima

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