Projeção da suscetibilidade a desertificação em Pernambuco utilizando o modelo HADGEM-ES (Projection of susceptibility to desertification in Pernambuco using the HADGEM-ES model)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v.10.4.p1170-1179Keywords:
, CMIP5, Índice de Aridez, SemiáridoAbstract
A suscetibilidade da região Nordeste do Brasil ao processo de desertificação está associada à variabilidade do clima e a fatores antropogênicos. Nesse contexto, extremos climáticos intensos associados à degradação do solo podem levar à aceleração do processo de desertificação no semiárido. O objetivo do trabalho é avaliar processo de desertificação no estado de Pernambuco e suas projeções para o século XXI. O estudo foi realizado com dados mensais de simulações de precipitação e temperatura do Climatic Research Unit (CRU) e projeções do modelo HADGEM2-ES derivado do Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5, utilizados no quinto relatório do Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC-AR5) no cenário RCP 8.5. Para analise, a evapotranspiração potencial foi calculada pelo método de Thornthwaite, que serviu para o cálculo do índice de aridez. O índice de aridez é bastante utilizado nos estudos para a determinação de áreas secas e principalmente nos estudos do processo de desertificação. Os resultados indicaram que, considerando a variabilidade do climática atual e futura no Nordeste do Brasil, associada a ações antrópicas, o estado de Pernambuco tem uma alta suscetibilidade a desertificação.
A B S T R A C T
The Brazilian Northeast region susceptibility to desertification process is associated with climate variability and anthropogenic factors. Intense climatic extremes associated with soil degradation may accelerate the desertification process in the semiarid region. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the desertification process in Pernambuco state and its projections for the 21st century. The study was carried out with monthly precipitation and temperature datasets from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and HADGEM2-ES projections, derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5, used in the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC -AR5) in the RCP 8.5 scenario. The potential evapotranspiration was calculated by the Thornthwaite method, which was used to calculate the aridity index. The aridity index is widely used in to determine dry areas, especially in desertification process studies. The results shows that, considering the current and future climate variability in Brazilian Northeast, associated with anthropic actions, Pernambuco has a high susceptibility to desertification.
Keywords: CMIP5; Aridity Index; Semi-arid.
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