Application of the Simulation Analysis Method to Determine a Future Water Supply Reservoir Yield
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v18.6.p4739-4748Keywords:
Urban water supply, Dam, Water securityAbstract
Urban planning should consider water availability and the required infrastructure for future public supply in the face of increasing demand. In regions where geomorphology does not allow the existence of major rivers, the dependence on damming smaller creeks is crucial to ensure urban water supply, especially in large cities. Because flow rates vary in time and space, dams have been used in such locations to form impoundments which are capable of regulating these flows. Various methods have been proposed to design and estimate the size of reservoirs, such as the mass diagram or methods based on probability matrices. This study presents an innovative application of the Simulation Analysis Method to determine the reliability of yield of reservoirs whose water is destined to public supply. The method is applied in an area where a future reservoir is planned to be generated from damming a small stream in the municipality of Caxias do Sul, southern Brazil. The results demonstrate that it is possible to ensure a flow rate of 1,540 L/s during 90% of time with the regulation of the flows in the studied stream, compared to only 48% without this regulation. By presenting the probabilities of supply failure relative to demand, the model contributes to the planning of water utilities in ensuring urban water security.
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