Simulação da Precipitação Sazonal com o Regcm4 sobre o Estado do Pará para Anos de El Niño e La Niña (Simulation of Seasonal Precipitation with Regcm4 about the State of Pará for Years of El Niño and La Niña)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v6i5.233107Keywords:
Precipitação sazonal. El Niño, Lã Niña. ENOS. RegCM4. Amazônia..Abstract
Este trabalho apresenta uma contribuição aos estudos de modelagem climática com ênfase na variabilidade pluviométrica sazonal do estado do Pará, durante as estações de verão e outono (DJF e MAM). Baseado nos resultados das simulações regionais do RegCM4 para os anos de El Niño (1982/83) e Lã Niña (1988/89) usando domínio em alta resolução espacial (50 Km) e dois diferentes esquemas de convecção (Grell e MIT), foi investigado o desempenho do modelo em simular a distribuição regional de precipitação sazonal no estado do Pará. As análises quantitativas evidenciaram que o RegCM4 apresenta erros sistemáticos, sobretudo aqueles relacionados a uma subestimativa das chuvas nas três grades (G1, G2, G3) para os anos de El Niño e Lã Niña sendo representativo apenas em pequenas áreas na região sudeste do estado no período do verão para o esquema Grell, e mostrou-se mais representativo na grade G2 do para o ano de El Niño no esquema MIT. Além disso, através da técnica de composições, também foi investigado o desempenho do RegCM4 em reproduzir os padrões espaciais anômalos de precipitação sazonal em associação aos episódios ENOS, e as fases do gradiente térmico sobre o Atlântico intertropical. Os resultados demonstraram que o modelo conseguiu representar realisticamente bem o padrão espacial das anomalias pluviométricas acima (abaixo) do normal em grande parte da Amazônia oriental, durante os conhecidos cenários favoráveis, i.e., condições de La Niña e gradiente de aTSM para o Atlântico sul (desfavoráveis, i.e., El Niño e gradiente de aTSM para o Atlântico norte). A B S T R A C T This paper presents a contribution to studies of climate modeling with emphasis on seasonal rainfall variability in the state of Pará, during the summer and autumn (DJF and MAM). Based on the results of simulations of regional RegCM4 for El Niño years (1982/83) and La Niña (1988/89) using the field at high spatial resolution (40 km) and two different convection schemes (Grell and MIT), was investigated the performance of the model to simulate the regional distribution of seasonal rainfall in the state of Pará. The quantitative analysis showed that the RegCM4 presents systematic errors, especially those related to an underestimation of rain in three grades (G1, G2, G3) for the years of El Niño and La Niña are representative only in small areas in the southeastern state in summer period for the Grell scheme, and was more representative of the grid G2 for the year of El Niño in the MIT scheme. Moreover, using the technique of composition, was also investigated in the performance of RegCM4 reproduce the spatial patterns of anomalous seasonal rainfall in association with ENSO episodes and phases of the thermal gradient over the Atlantic intertropical. The results showed that the model represented realistically and spatial patterns of rainfall anomalies above (below) of normal in much of the eastern Amazon, during the known favorable scenarios, ie, La Niña and gradient SSTa South Atlantic (unfavorable, ie, El Niño and gradient SSTa North Atlantic). Keywords: seasonal rainfall, El Nino, La Nina, Amazon, ENSO, RegCM4.Downloads
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Copyright (c) 2013 Pâmela Lorena Ribeiro Ávila, Everaldo Barreiros de Souza, Amanda Nascimento Pinheiro
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