Análise exploratória dos dados climáticos de reanálise para zona da mata sul no estado de Pernambuco
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v19.01.p217-231Keywords:
CHIRPS, ERA5-Land, monitoramento climáticoAbstract
The Sirinhaém River Basin (BHRS), located in the southern forest zone of Pernambuco, is one of the state's main coastal basins due to its contribution to sugarcane production. With the worsening of climate change, the region has become more prone to extreme events due to the tendency of consecutive wetter days, which favor intense rainfall, contributing to soil erosion and rising water levels in rivers. Therefore, it is crucial to monitor the region's climate to ensure proper basin management and mitigate the effects of climate change. Since access to consistent data or long observational series is not always available, the use of reanalysis data becomes a good alternative due to its spatial and temporal consistency. This study aimed to evaluate the dynamics of meteorological variables in the BHRS and the feasibility of using CHIRPS and ERA5-Land data for climate monitoring in the region. It was found that reanalysis data tend to underestimate observed values but presented satisfactory statistical performance. CHIRPS showed better performance for precipitation, with r² ranging from 0.5 to 0.8, and lower values of RMSE, BIAS, and mean absolute error compared to ERA5-Land, which demonstrated more reliable statistical performance for temperature and relative humidity. Despite the tendency to underestimate real data, the use of reanalysis data to understand the climatic behavior of the BHRS remains viable due to its consistency.
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