Análise Geoestatística da Precipitação Pluvial do Estado da Paraíba (Geostatistical Analysis of Precipitation in Paraiba State)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v4i4.232712Keywords:
Geoestatística, precipitação, krigagem ordináriaAbstract
Este trabalho tem como objetivo estudar a variabilidade espacial da precipitação pluvial média mensal do Estado da Paraíba, no período de 1962 a 2001, utilizando técnicas geoestatísticas. Os dados foram cedidos pela Unidade Acadêmica de Ciências Atmosféricas (UACA) da Universidade Federal de Campina Grande (UFCG), coletados em estações meteorológicas e postos pluviométricos localizados em 102 municípios do Estado. Foi usado o semivariograma para determinar a dependência espacial da variável em estudo, em seguida foi feita uma análise descritiva dos dados a fim de resumir a série e descrevê-la em termos numéricos. De acordo com os resultados obtidos todos os variogramas apresentaram forte dependência espacial (IDE ≥ 75%), com exceção dos meses de junho a setembro que apresentaram tendências nas séries e dificuldade no ajuste dos modelos de comportamento espacial. De acordo com a análise descritiva dos dados os coeficientes de variação apresentaram alta dispersão (Cv > 20%) entre os valores, indicando grande variabilidade da chuva. Também foram confeccionados mapas de krigagem ordinária para os meses de janeiro, fevereiro, outubro e novembro. Tomaram-se como critério os valores dos coeficientes de determinação (R2 > 93%) para se obter os mapas ajustados pelos modelos e os mapas dos resíduos.
Palavras – Chave: Geoestatística, precipitação e krigagem ordinária.
Geostatistical Analysis of Precipitation in Paraiba State
ABSTRACT
This work aims to study the spatial variability of monthly average rainfall of the State of Paraíba, in the period 1962 to 2001, using geostatistical techniques. The data were provided by the Academic Unit of Atmospheric Sciences (UACA), Federal University of Campina Grande (UFCG), collected from weather stations and climatic stations located in 102 municipalities in the State. Semivariogram was used to determine the spatial dependence of the variable under study was then carried out a descriptive analysis to summarize the series and describe it in numerical terms. According to the results of all variograms showed a strong spatial dependence (IDE ≥ 75%), with the exception of the months from June to September which showed trends in the series and difficulty in adjusting the models of spatial behavior. According to the data descriptive analysis coefficients of variation showed a high dispersion (CV > 20%) between the values, indicating great variability in rainfall. Were also made maps of ordinary kriging for the months of January, February, October and November. Were taken as criteria, the coefficients of determination (R2 > 93%) to obtain the maps set by models and residual maps.
Keywords: Geostatistics, kriging and precipitation.
Downloads
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2012 Carlos Antonio Costa dos Santos, Oseas Machado Gomes, Francisco de Assis Salviano de Souza, Willian de Paiva
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with Revista Brasileira de Geografia Física agree to the following terms:
Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
Authors are permitted to make their work available online before or during the editorial process, on academic social networks, digital repositories, or preprint servers. After publication in Revista Brasileira de Geografia Física, authors are expected to update the preprint or postprint versions on the platforms where they were originally made available, providing a link to the final published version and any other relevant information, with proper recognition of authorship and the initial publication in this journal.
You are free to:
Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format for any purpose, even commercially.
Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially.
The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.
Under the following terms:
Attribution — You must give appropriate credit , provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made . You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.
