Identificação de Tendência da Precipitação na Microrregião do Cariri Paraibano (Identification of Precipitation Trend in the Microregion of Cariri Paraibano)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v6i5.233114Keywords:
Análise de Regressão, Teste de Mann Kendall, Teste de Pettitt, Tendência pluviométrica.Abstract
O teste paramétrico de análise de regressão e o teste não-paramétrico de Mann Kendall foram utilizados com o intuito de identificar a existência de tendência na série de precipitação anual e para o período chuvoso na microrregião do Cariri Paraibano. Os dados de precipitação utilizados foram provenientes do Climate Prediction Center (CPC) e da Agência Executiva de Gestão das Águas do Estado da Paraíba (AESA), durante os anos de 1979 a 2010 e 1995 a 2010, respectivamente. Com base nos resultados encontrados, foi verificada a existência de uma tendência positiva da precipitação anual. Observa-se uma mudança brusca em torno do ano de 2000, onde antes deste ano tem-se redução de 13% e após um aumento de 24,5% na precipitação anual. Não foi verificada nenhuma tendência para o período chuvoso concluindo que outros meses é que contribuem para o aumento da precipitação anual encontrada.
ABSTRACT
The parametric test of regression analysis and the nonparametric Mann Kendall’s test were used to identify the existence of the trend in annual precipitation series and for the rainy season in the microregion of Cariri Paraibano. The precipitation data used were from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the Executive Agency for Water Management in the State of Paraíba (AESA) during the years 1979-2010 and 1995-2010, respectively. Based on these results, it was verified the existence of a positive trend of annual precipitation. There is a sudden change around the year 2000, where before this year has been reduced 13% and after an increase of 24,5% in annual precipitation. Was not checked any significant tendency for the rainy season concluding that other months is contributing to the increase in annual precipitation found.
KEYWORDS: Regression Analysis, Mann Kendall’s test, Pettitt’s test, precipitation trend.
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Copyright (c) 2013 Jaricélia Patrícia de Oliveira Sena, Daisy Beserra Lucena
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