Uso de Distribuições de Probabilidades para Ajuste aos Dados de Precipitação Mensal do Estado de Sergipe (Use of Probability Distributions for Adjustment to Monthly...)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v8.1.p071-080Keywords:
Estimativa de chuva, Nordeste, Função densidade, Pluviometria, SemiáridoAbstract
As precipitações pluviométricas mensais coletadas por 72 estações meteorológicas espalhadas por todo o Estado de Sergipe entre os anos de 1912 até 2012 foram utilizadas na construção de histogramas para cada um dos doze meses do ano. Seis distribuições de probabilidades: Normal, Exponencial, Lognormal, Beta, Gama e Weibull foram testadas para ajuste com os dados observados usando o teste de aderência qui-quadrado. Não foi possível ajuste de nenhuma distribuição para os meses de fevereiro, maio, junho, agosto, setembro e outubro. Das seis distribuições testadas, apenas Beta, Gama e Weibull se ajustaram juntas ou em separado a alguns dos outros seis meses. A distribuição Beta foi a que obteve mais adaptabilidade aos dados observados ajustando-se a quatro dos seis meses, as distribuições Gama e Weibull só conseguiram ajuste a três e dois dos seis meses cada uma respectivamente. Chegamos à conclusão de que as chuvas mensais para todo o estado de Sergipe, não puderam ser ajustadas para todos os meses pelas distribuições de probabilidades testadas.
A B S T R A C T
The monthly rainfall collected by 72 weather stations scattered throughout the Sergipe State between the years 1912 through 2012 were used in the construction of histograms for each of the twelve months of the year. Six probability distributions: Normal, Exponential, Lognormal, Beta, Gamma and Weibull were tested for fit to the observed data using the chi-square test of grip. Unable to fit any distribution for the months of February, May, June, August, September and October. Only Beta, Gamma and Weibull distributions was adjusted together or separately some of the other six months. The Beta distribution is the one with more adaptability to the observed data adjusting to four of the six months, Gamma and Weibull distributions were only able to fit three and two of six months each respectively. It is concluded that monthly rainfall for the entire Sergipe state, could not be adjusted for each month by probability distributions tested.
Keywords: rainfall, statistics, modeling.
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Copyright (c) 2015 Wellington Jorge Cavalcanti Lundgren, Inajá Francisco de Souza, Antenor de Oliveira Aguiar Neto
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