Dinâmica temporal em múltiplas escalas de tempo dos eventos secos e chuvosos no Sudeste do Brasil (Temporal dynamics at multiple scales time of the dry and rainy events in southeastern Brazil)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v9.5.p1292-1300Keywords:
Sudeste, SPI, Extremos, Precipitação.Abstract
O Sudeste do Brasil é uma região intrinsecamente dependente do regime pluviométrico, visto que, este subsidia diversos setores da economia, como a agricultura e hidrelétricas, tornando de grande importância o estudo desta variável, a fim de prover a identificação compreensão de sua dinâmica ao longo do tempo. Desta forma, nesta pesquisa objetivou-se analisar a dinâmica temporal dos eventos extremos secos e chuvosos mais expressivos no Sudeste do Brasil, através do Índice de Precipitação Normalizado (SPI). Para isto, utilizaram-se dados mensais de precipitação do GPCP, no período de 1979 a 2014. Além disso, foi investigada as tendências destes eventos secos e chuvosos sobre a Região e a relação destes com os padrões de baixa frequência. Os resultados mostraram que a década de 80 apresentou o maior evento extremo de chuva. Por outro lado, observou-se na década de 2010 o maior evento extremo de seca. As análises das tendências evidenciaram tendências decrescentes nos valores do SPI-3, 6 e 12 meses, indicando desta forma diminuição (aumento) dos eventos chuvosos (secos). Além disso, estes eventos apresentaram uma elevada dependência com os índices dos fenômenos de baixa frequência.
A B S T R A C T
Brazil's Southeast region is intrinsically dependent on the rainfall regime, this variable benefits many sectors of the economy such as agriculture and hydropower, playing a huge role in the study of this variable, in order to provide identification and understanding its dynamic over time. Thus, this study aimed to analyze the temporal dynamics of the extreme dry and rainy events more expressive in Brazil's Southeast, through the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI). For this, we used monthly data of precipitation from Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) database in the period 1979-2014. In addition, we investigated the trends of these dry and rainy events over the study area and their relationship with the low-frequency patterns. The results showed that the 80s had the highest extreme rainy event. Moreover, it was observed in the 2010s the highest extreme dry event. The trend analyzes showed decreasing trends in the values of SPI-3, 6 and 12 months, indicating a decrease (increase) of rainy events (dry). In addition, through multivariate analysis it was found that the dry and rainy events over Brazil's Southeast are directly related with low-frequency patterns.
Keywords: Southeast, SPI, Extremes, rainy, dry.
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Copyright (c) 2016 Sérgio Rodrigo Santos, Clovis Angeli Sansigolo, Ana Paula Paes dos Santos
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