AVALIAÇÃO DA PREVISIBILIDADE DO MODELO WRF-HYDRO EM MODELAGENS HIDROMETEOROLÓGICAS COM DIFERENTES RESOLUÇÕES NA BACIA DO TAQUARI-ANTAS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v12.5.p1872-1890Keywords:
, previsão numérica, eventos extremos, WRF-Hydro, monitoramento de bacias hidrográficas e modelagem hidrometeorológicaAbstract
O presente estudo avalia o modelo WRF-Hydro uma ferramenta de previsão acoplada chuva/solo/vazão, buscando aperfeiçoar o grau de agilidade e confiabilidade das previsões na região considerada de grande vulnerabilidade, a bacia hidrográfica do Taquari-Antas/RS, localizada na região Sul do Brasil. A avaliação consistiu em analisar os resultados e a previsibilidade do modelo com diferentes resoluções espaciais na simulação de evento extremo ocorrido em janeiro de 2010. A primeira simulação foi realizada com duas grades do modelo meteorológico com 50 e 10 km e com a rede de canais com resolução de 1000 m. E a outra com três grades de 25, 5 e 1 km para meteorologia e rede de canais com 250 m. Avaliadas usando comparações da magnitude e da variabilidade dos fluxos da superfície da bacia, como precipitação e vazão do modelo com dados observados. Os resultados seguem as observações locais e apresentam bons resultados para servir como ferramenta em sistemas de alerta contra cheias nesta e em outras regiões.
Predictability of the Wrf-Hydro Model in Hydrometeorological Modeling with Different Resolutions in the Taquari-Antas Basin
A B S T R A C T
The present study evaluates the WRF-Hydro model, a rainfall/soil/flow coupled forecasting tool, aiming to improve the agility and reliability of the predictions in the region considered to be of great vulnerability, the Taquari-Antas/RS basin located in the region South of Brazil. The evaluation consisted of analyzing the results and predictability of the model with different spatial resolutions in the extreme event simulation that occurred in January 2010. The first simulation was performed with two grids of the 50 and 10 km meteorological model and with the channel network with resolution of 1000 m. And the other with three grids of 25, 5 and 1 km for meteorology and network of channels with 250 m. Evaluated using comparisons of magnitude and variability of basin surface fluxes, such as precipitation and flow of the model with observed data. The results follow local observations and present good results to serve as a tool in flood warning systems in this and other regions.
Keywords: numerical forecasting, extreme events, WRF-Hydro, hydrological basin monitoring and hydro-meteorological modeling.
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