Aquecimento Global ou Variabilidade Climática Natural na Microrregião de Juazeiro - BA? (Global Warming or Natural Climate Variability on Juazeiro Microregion in Bahia State?)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v5i3.232853Keywords:
Mudanças Climáticas, Semiárido Nordestino, JuazeiroAbstract
A repercussão em função do aquecimento global tem causado preocupação em todo planeta, pelas ações de causa e conseqüência que apontam perante o possível aumento de temperatura. Porém, existe a hipótese da situação-problema em que as mudanças climáticas podem ser resultantes naturais da variabilidade climática. A pesquisa tem por objetivo verificar se há algum indício de mudança climática referente às realidades próximas do município de Juazeiro-BA (09°25’00’’S; 40°30’00’’W), encravado no Semiárido Nordestino. Foram analisados dados mensais e anuais de precipitação, temperatura média, temperatura mínima e temperatura máxima da estação agrometeorológica de Mandacaru – BA. Os mesmos foram agrupados em décadas e determinados segundo as medidas de tendência central (média e mediana), além do desvio padrão (medida de dispersão). Os resultados foram apresentados para a cidade segundo as figuras de médias mensais e anuais (1975-2010) e médias anuais por décadas. Pôde-se concluir com base nos resultados que diante dos parâmetros analisados houve um indicativo de variabilidade natural que caracteriza o Semiárido Brasileiro, ou seja, não foi possível observar alterações que estejam vinculadas às mudanças climáticas como indicado pela literatura.
Palavras - chave: Mudanças Climáticas; Semiárido Nordestino; Juazeiro.
Global Warming or Natural Climate Variability on Juazeiro Microregion in Bahia State?
ABSTRACT
The repercussions about global warming have caused concern around the globe, by the actions of cause and effect, that pointing to the possibility of increase in global temperatures. However, there is the chance that all observed changes are just the result of natural climate variability. The research aims to verify if there is any indication regarding the realities of climate changes near Juazeiro city in Bahia State, embedded in the semiarid region of Brazil. It were analyzed the monthly and annual precipitation, average temperature, minimum temperature and maximum temperature of agrometeorological station. It was grouped in decades according in to certain measures of central tendency (mean and median) and standard deviation (measure of dispersion). The results were presented according to the figures of monthly and annual average between 1975 and 2010 and decade averages. It was concluded, based on the results, that the analyzed parameters were an indication of natural variability that characterizes the Brazilian Semiarid, i. e., it was not possible to observed changes that are linked to climate changes as indicated by the literature.
Keywords: Climate Change; Northeast Semiarid; Juazeiro.
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Copyright (c) 2012 Clênia Rodrigues Alcântara, Débora Vanessa Regis Ferreira, Glauciene Justino Ferreira da Silva, Hermes Alves de Almeida
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